White matter fiber bundles in the human brain can be located by tracing the local water diffusion in diffusion weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) images. In this paper, a novel Bayesian modeling approach for white matter tractography is presented. The uncertainty associated with estimated white matter fiber paths is investigated, and a method for calculating the probability of a connection between two areas in the brain is introduced. The main merits of the presented methodology are its simple implementation and its ability to handle noise in a theoretically justified way. Theory for estimating global connectivity is also presented, as well as a theorem that facilitates the estimation of the parameters in a constrained tensor model of the local water diffusion profile.